It’s time: No. 19 MSU bound for Indianapolis, San Francisco next
MURRAY — Suspense turned to surprise Sunday night at the CFSB Center, when 19th-ranked Murray State learned its 2022 NCAA Tournament fate.
With discussions of the 8/9 seed-line swirling all week, the Racers (30-2) will tote their 20-game win streak up the road to Indianapolis as the No. 7 seed in the East Region — where they’ll take on 10-seeded San Francisco out of the West Coast Conference.
In order to make its first Sweet Sixteen, a place it so desperately desires to be, MSU will have to muscle itself past a Dons squad sporting as much depth and talent as the Racers — only to be pitted on Saturday against the winner of No. 2 Kentucky and No. 15 Saint Peter’s (winners of the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, 77-63 over Fairfield).
Naturally, the buzz quickly escalated: “The Racers are a seven seed? The Racers are a seven seed!,” to “San Francisco was an under-seeded 10!” to “Holy shit, Murray State and Kentucky might actually play each other for the first time in college basketball history, with a berth to the Sweet Sixteen on the line, and less than five hours from the Commonwealth, no less, in which two fan bases — often sporting the school’s colors at the same time — will collide in a tour-de-force unlike the world has ever seen.”
It’s a fun jump to conclusions, and one seven-year Murray State men’s basketball coach Matt McMahon — elated, then stoic — failed to entertain.
To be fair: why on Earth should he? It’s called “March Madness” for a reason. To imply seed line is folly. Meet Virginia: a team that will always be the answer to the question: “Who was the first team in NCAA Tournament history to fall as a No. 1 seed to a No. 16 seed?” Perhaps the Dons, chips on their shoulders now from all this “’Cats, Racers!” talk, slap around MSU late Thursday night. Could happen. May not. But it could.
Better yet, what if the Peacocks — winning a conference that belonged to Iona and Rick Pitino for 95% of the year — stunned the Wildcats with intrepid play from Daryl Banks III, KC Ndefo, Doug Edert and Fousseyni Drame?
Again, anything can happen. By the end of the 2022 SEC semifinal against No. 9 Tennessee, the top-10 Wildcats were shooting a lower percentage from the arc (.100) than some fans’ blood alcohol content. Do that again on a neutral floor in March and…well…it’ll be a short postseason.
The basketball gods giveth, and they taketh away — and the only thing in front of the Racers now is opportunity. And one game.
If you’re going to (beat) San Francisco…
Be sure to wear some rebounds on your hands.
It’s a bad attempt at a Scott McKenzie reference, but here we are. I had to try.
Bill Russell ain’t walking through that door, but the Dons (24-9, 10-6 WCC) are pretty terrific. And on paper, they’re equals with the Racers.
Led by a trio of seniors in 6-2 point guard Jamaree Bouyea (16.7 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 4.0 apg), 6-1 guard Khalil Shabazz (14.0 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 2.2 apg) and 6-10 graduate Yauhen Massalski — who hails from Minsk, Belarus, and has followed up a four-year career at San Diego with a strong final year for San Francisco (13.5 ppg, 9.4 rpg, 1.6 apg) — the Dons possess similar inside-outside balance as Murray State’s KJ Williams, Tevin Brown and Justice Hill.
And it doesn’t stop there. The Dons have had five different players lead the team in scoring this year — with 6-3 junior guard Gabe Stefanini (9.6 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 2.1 apg) and 6-5 sophomore guard Julian Rishwain (7.4 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 0.7 apg) showcasing their prolific ability at different times. Meanwhile, the Racers have gotten double-digit efforts from guards Carter Collins, DaQuan Smith and Trae Hannibal at different intervals, as well as forward DJ Burns.
As of Sunday night, San Francisco’s KenPom rating (21) was better than Murray State’s (27), as they, too, boast great balance offensively (110.8, 45th) and defensively (92.4, 19th), a plodding tempo (68.7, 89th) and a top-100 non-conference schedule.
They’re 40th in the country in points per game (77.1), hold teams to 67 ppg, and both make (9.6, 16th) and attempt (27.2, 19th) a considerable amount of 3-pointers each game, while clamping down defensive rebounds (27.3 drpg, 46th) and blocking shots (4.6 bpg, 39th).
They also hold one of the best 3-point defenses in the country — limiting opponents to 5.1 makes (fourth) and 17.4 attempts (15th) per game.
If there’s any glaring “weakness” for the Dons, it isn’t readily apparent. They don’t shoot sensationally from the floor (.457), are a bit prone to pressure and turnovers (12.9 tpg, 152nd) and foul frequently (17.9 per game) — and aren’t the greatest at free-throw shooting (.696, 248th).
Of their nine losses, three of them have come at the hands of the tournament’s No. 1 overall seed Gonzaga — 78-62, 89-73 and 81-71. Their other six losses: St. Mary’s twice (by a total of seven points), BYU (71-69), Portland (69-68), Grand Canyon (49-48) and Loyola-Chicago (79-74).
Top wins include: Davidson, Samford, UAB, Towson, Arizona State, Santa Clara (twice) and BYU (twice).
X-Factors
— Williams, Brown, Collins and Smith have NCAA Tournament experience, with Williams and Brown particularly shining in the 2019 visit to Hartford, Connecticut, with Morant. Collins was with Davidson’s 2018 tournament team as a freshman, and with so much game experience, McMahon believes he once again can have a postseason impact.
— Somehow, Murray State/San Francisco earned the primetime 8:40 p.m. matchup over Kentucky/Saint Peter’s, which means all eyes will be on the game late Thursday night.
— The Ohio Valley Conference Tournament has long been able to tout that it’s the first bid to the NCAA Tournament every year, and that remains true. But this means it’s also the longest wait to Selection Sunday and a first-round game, which some coaches believe can have a negative effect. This year, it probably helps Murray State, allowing guys like Williams, Brown and Hill to heal effectively, while allowing a key reserve like graduate forward Jordan Skipper-Brown gain more strength under his legs after missing a month of play.
— San Francisco hasn’t been to the NCAA Tournament since 1998; a drought Todd Golden and his Dons just ended. Murray State, meanwhile, has been three times in the last five years.
Personal Thoughts On Kentucky vs. Murray State
In a lot of ways, the Kentucky-Murray State chatter improperly overshadows what should be a great slate of first-round games for both teams.
Sure. On one hand, it has a chance to be a historic Saturday — rife with storylines aplenty.
1) The fact that Collins and Kentucky’s Kellan Grady are best friends, having played at Davidson together for four years before seeking graduate opportunities, is pretty high on the “cool” level.
2) Remember when I said that the Racers and the Wildcats have never played in this history of college basketball? Yeah, that’s a thing. Don’t think they’ve much explored it, either, over the last nine decades. Kentucky has never much been interested in coming to Murray for a true road game, and the Racers could care less for a game at Rupp Arena when they can find a quality road game with a better price tag. But it would be pretty damned neat to settle the score on a neutral floor.
3) It would pit two fan bases — typically proud of the other’s accomplishments — against one another. Many Kentuckians are alumni of both programs. Chaos would reign supreme, and it would galvanize the Commonwealth into one great crucible of ballyhooing basketball.
4) The matchup, athletically, would be aesthetically pleasing. Imagine Williams, Hill, Brown, Burns and Collins facing off against Oscar Tshiebwe, Grady, TyTy Washington, Sahvir Wheeler and Keion Brooks. Oh, hell yeah.
But on the other hand, it has a chance to be a frustrating, undeserved distraction for the next week — with questions neither McMahon, nor UK skipper John Calipari, want to answer.
1) For many UK and Murray State fans, the fact that the two programs have never played is a wonderful mystique. Some Racer fans don’t enjoy feeling like Kentucky’s “little brother” and “sideshow,” as if Murray State plays some different brand and league of college basketball where the two worlds would never collide. Some Kentucky fans quickly dismiss Murray State’s history, as if Popeye Jones, Bennie Purcell, Jeff Martin, Ja Morant, Isaiah Canaan, Cameron Payne, Howie Crittenden, Joe Fulks and countless others couldn’t sniff the floor in Lexington.
2) Some fans might as well wear reversible pullovers to games — with one side being Kentucky, and the other side being Murray State. No one is here to say who should love what, but a lot of diehards for both programs don’t particularly embrace this perceived “lukewarm” appreciation for both schools. It’s got to be all or nothing, dammit, didn’t you get the memo?
3) Unreasonably so, a UK loss to Murray State, or a Racer loss to the Wildcats, would likely bring out the worst “isms” in the world — taking away from what would certainly be a great matchup analytically and philosophically.
4) It greatly inhibits goals for Murray State and Kentucky. The Racers haven’t tasted defeat since December, while the Wildcats have been a top-5 program all year with “championship contender” glued next to their name. Meeting in the second round does each team a disservice.
No matter what happens on Thursday, this has been a capital season for Racer basketball. One for the books.
for those who inquired. 